Sources of Bias in Inflation Rates and Implications for Inflation Dynamics
利用家庭扫描数据，发现官方通胀率存在平均2.6个百分点的偏差，且在相对价格冲击后偏差扩大至3.7个百分点，对通胀动态研究有重要参考价值。
Abstract Official statistics measuring the cost of living are known to suffer from several biases. This paper shows that the size of the biases can vary with economic conditions. Using homescan data, it is first confirmed that official price indexes can be tracked using such granular data sets. While the often‐acknowledged substitution bias is shown to be relatively small, neglected preference adjustment and product entry/exit result in a 2.6 percentage point bias in the annual inflation rate on average. Furthermore, the bias is particularly large in the aftermath of a shock to relative prices, increasing to 3.7 percentage points.