AGE DISCONTINUITY AND NONEMPLOYMENT BENEFIT POLICY EVALUATION THROUGH THE LENS OF JOB SEARCH THEORY
指出，基于年龄断点的断点回归设计在评估社会救助和失业保险延长政策时会产生偏差，因为年龄阈值以下的人会预期未来资格而改变搜寻行为。量化偏差后发现，社会救助对就业的影响被低估，而失业保险延长对非就业时长的影响被高估。
Abstract Recent papers use regression discontinuity designs (RDDs) based on age discontinuity to evaluate social assistance (SA) and unemployment insurance (UI) extension policies. Job search theory predicts that such designs generate biased estimates of the policy‐relevant treatment effect. Owing to market frictions, people below the age threshold modify their search behavior in expectation of future eligibility. We use a job search model to quantify the biases on various datasets in the literature. The impacts of SA benefits on employment are underestimated, whereas those of UI extensions on nonemployment duration are overestimated. The article provides insights for RDD evaluations of age‐discontinuous policies.