Structural Change and the Fertility Transition
利用1890年代美国南部农业害虫扩散作为外生冲击，发现农业收入下降使留在农业的家庭因孩子是正常品而减少生育，转向制造业的家庭因机会成本上升也减少生育，同时儿童劳动价值降低促进了教育。
This paper provides new insights into the relationship between structural change and the fertility transition. We exploit the spread of an agricultural pest in the American South in the 1890s as plausibly exogenous variation in agricultural production to establish a causal link between earnings opportunities in agriculture and fertility. Households staying in agriculture reduced fertility because children are a normal good, while households switching to manufacturing reduced fertility because of the higher opportunity costs of raising children. The lower earnings opportunities in agriculture also decreased the value of child labor, which increased schooling, consistent with a quantity-quality model of fertility.