MAKE YOURSELVES SCARCE: THE EFFECT OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE ON THE RELATIVE WAGES AND EMPLOYMENT RATES OF EXPERIENCED WORKERS
利用美国地方劳动力市场数据，研究发现人口老龄化显著降低了经验丰富工人的相对工资、全职就业率和劳动参与率，影响比以往认知更严重。
Abstract This article studies the impact of demographic change on experienced workers' relative wages and employment rates. We investigate empirical predictions from a framework of supply and demand for experience skill, using variation across U.S. local labor markets (LLMs) over the last decades and instrumenting experience skill supply by the LLMs' age structures a decade earlier. We find that aging substantially reduces experienced workers' relative wages and full‐time employment rates, and also their labor market participation rates. Our results imply that the effect of demographic change on labor markets might be more severe than previously recognized, as it reaches beyond wages.