Timberland Investment under Both Financial and Biophysical Risk
研究了美国东南部林地投资在金融和生物物理风险共同作用下的最优策略，发现价格小幅下降但生物生产力上升，导致最优策略是“持有”，与当地林地投资扩张率一致。
We extend real options analysis of timberland investments to examine a combination of financial and biophysical risk effects on optimal investment strategies in the southeastern United States. Results show that, despite a slight downward drift in price, expected returns for loblolly pine management fall between entry and exit thresholds, indicating an optimal “hold” strategy. This is explained by an offsetting upward trend in biophysical productivity associated with climate changes across a range of modeled futures. Monte Carlo analysis indicates a small positive difference between entry and exit outcomes consistent with observed rates of expansion in timberland investments in the region. <i></i>