Why Have Divorce Rates Fallen?: The Role of Women’s Age at Marriage
利用美国三项调查数据，通过三种实证方法发现女性初婚年龄上升是1980年后离婚率下降的主要原因。
Abstract American divorce rates rose from the 1950s to the 1970s peaked around 1980, and have fallen ever since. The mean age at marriage also substantially increased after 1970. I explore the extent to which the rise in age at marriage can explain the decrease in divorce rates for cohorts marrying after 1980 using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation, 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, and National Survey of Family Growth. Three different empirical approaches suggest that the increase in women’s age at marriage is the main proximate cause of the fall in divorce rates.