Comparing the Chosen: Selection Bias When Selection Is Competitive
研究了当决策者总是从两个随机抽取中选较大者时，被选中的分布何时会呈现一阶随机占优或单调似然比占优，并用于分析锦标赛、拍卖、自我选择等经济问题。
Consider a decision maker who selects between paired random draws from two unconditional distributions, always selecting the larger draw in the pair. When will the resulting selection-conditioned distributions be ordered by first-order stochastic or monotone likelihood ratio dominance? In various guises, this question arises in many economic contexts—tournaments, contests, auctions, cheap-talk games, announcement returns, qualitative choice models, and treatment effects under self-selection. This paper develops simple, applicable characterizations of the properties of unconditional distributions that result in dominance conditioned on selection and uses these characterizations to analyze a number of economic selection problems.