Which sanctions matter? analysis of the EU/russian sanctions of 2014
利用2014年俄罗斯与欧盟相互实施贸易制裁的准自然实验，分析窄制裁与宽制裁的效果差异，发现俄罗斯对欧美食品进口的制裁导致贸易下降幅度是西方对俄出口设备制裁的约8倍，且结果不受贸易转移影响。
We use a quasi-natural experiment of reciprocal imposition of trade sanctions by Russia and the EU since 2014. Using UNCTAD/BACI bilateral flows data we take this unique opportunity to analyse both sanctions. In particular, we study the effectiveness of narrow versus broadly defined sanctions, and differences in the effectiveness of sanctions imposed on exports and imports. We show that the Russian sanctions imposed on European and American food imports resulted in about an 8 times stronger decline in trade flows than those imposed by the EU and the US on exports of extraction equipment. These results do not appear to be driven by diversion of trade flows via non-sanctioning countries. Hence the difference in sanctions’ effectiveness can be attributed to the limited retroactivity of Western sanctions, which allowed exemptions for exports made pursuant to contracts made prior to 2014.