Demand and order‐fulfillment planning: The impact of point‐of‐sale data, retailer orders and distribution center orders on forecast accuracy
利用大型消费品供应链的日常数据，比较基于销售点数据、零售商订单和配送中心订单的预测准确性，发现销售点数据能改善需求规划预测，但对订单履行规划无益，挑战了咨询公司的普遍说法。
Abstract Industry consultants claim that investing in systems that base forecasting on point‐of‐sale (POS) data throughout the supply chain will improve forecast accuracy. We explore what actually happens to forecast accuracy for demand and order‐fulfillment planning when the forecast demand signal is based on POS, retailer orders, or distribution center (DC) orders. We begin by comparing the forecast accuracy for different demand signals using daily demand and operating data from a large consumer‐products supply chain. We then extend the analysis by varying the demand and supply‐chain parameters to evaluate their impact on demand signal performance. We find that POS data improve forecast accuracy for demand planning but not for order‐fulfillment planning. These findings thus challenge consulting‐firm claims about the ability of POS‐based forecasting systems to improve forecast accuracy across all contexts.