Bank Behavior in Large-Scale Macroeconometric Models of the 1960s
讨论了1960年代几个大型宏观经济计量模型中如何纳入银行的投资组合选择和信贷配给，发现模型构建者虽面临信贷配给不可观测的困难，仍不断尝试用代理变量将其纳入模型，这引发了对宏观计量模型中微观基础理念和信念作用的反思。
In this article we discuss the implementation of a portfolio choice framework and the inclusion of credit rationing by banks in several large-scale macroeconometric models built during the 1960s. We argue that the Fed-MIT-Penn model has a more transparent structure: the structure of the money market is clearer, as is the relationship of its equations with the microeconomic choices of banks. Regarding credit rationing, we found that modelers made important efforts to include it despite its nonobservable nature and to develop a measure of it. A succession of proxy variables was used and despite constant negative results modelers kept trying to find a place for credit rationing in their model. These results invite a deeper reflection on the idea of microfoundations in large-scale macroeconometric models and on the role of beliefs in macroeconometric modeling.