Climate Econometrics: Can the Panel Approach Account for Long‐Run Adaptation?
研究了非线性面板固定效应模型能否捕捉长期气候适应，发现对于空间大的面板，温度与结果的关系主要反映长期气候响应，但降水则不然，并在美国和法国的作物产量数据中找到了长期适应的证据。
The panel approach with fixed effects and nonlinear weather effects has become a popular method to uncover weather impacts on economic outcomes, but its ability to capture long‐run climatic adaptation remains unclear. Building upon a framework proposed by McIntosh and Schlenker (2006), this paper identifies empirical conditions under which the nonlinear panel approach can approximate a long‐run response to climate. When these conditions fail, the obtained relationship may still be interpretable as a weighted average of underlying short‐run and long‐run responses. We use this decomposition to revisit recently published climate impact estimates. For spatially large panels, the estimated temperature–outcome relationship mostly reflects the long‐run climatic response; this is not so for precipitation. We find some evidence of long‐run climatic adaptation for crop yield outcomes in the United States and France.