Beyond the cost‐effectiveness acceptability curve: The appropriateness of rank probabilities for presenting the results of economic evaluation in multiple technology appraisal
讨论了在多重技术评估中，使用排序概率来展示经济评价结果的不确定性，并基于决策模型的蒙特卡洛模拟说明了其计算方法，认为排序概率可作为成本效果可接受曲线的补充工具。
The cost-effectiveness acceptability curve (CEAC) shows the probability that an option ranks first for net benefit. Where more than two options are under consideration, the CEAC offers only a partial picture of the decision uncertainty. This paper discusses the appropriateness of showing the full set of rank probabilities for reporting the results of economic evaluation in multiple technology appraisal (MTA). A case study is used to illustrate the calculation of rank probabilities and associated metrics, based on Monte Carlo simulations from a decision model. Rank probabilities are often used to show uncertainty in the results of network meta-analysis, but until now have not been used for economic evaluation. They may be useful decision-making tools to complement the CEAC in specific MTA contexts.