Social Capital Encourages Disaster Evacuation: Evidence from a Cyclone in Bangladesh
利用孟加拉国气旋受灾家庭调查数据，发现社会资本（尤其是宗教少数群体）显著提高疏散概率，主要机制是降低对疏散期间盗窃风险的担忧。
An essential responsibility of a government is to reduce disaster mortality of citizens by encouraging prompt evacuation. Previous studies document that social capital plays a multifaceted role in facilitating or aggravating evacuation decisions; however, rigorous empirical evidence from developing countries is scarce. Using unique survey data collected from cyclone-affected households in Bangladesh, we examine the association between social capital and the decision to evacuate. We find that those with higher bonding social capital are more likely to evacuate, and the effect is even larger among religious minorities. By conducting a sensitivity test, we confirm that it is implausible to explain these results by unobserved socio-economic status or cyclone damage. We also disentangle five potential mechanisms for the positive effect and demonstrate that it is mainly driven by a reduction in the perceived risk of theft during evacuation. This suggests that bonding social capital compensates for the lack of a well-functioning law enforcement system, contributing to our understanding of the interactive roles of communities and institutions during natural disaster.