Firms’ Price, Cost and Activity Expectations: Evidence from Micro Data
利用英国制造业企业关于价格、工资、新订单、就业和单位成本的预期面板数据，揭示了企业预期的典型事实及其决定因素，发现企业预期受自身和宏观因素影响，且并非理性。
Abstract Firms’ expectations play a central role in modern macroeconomic models, but little is known empirically about them. Using panel data on manufacturing firms’ expectations about prices and wage rates, new orders, employment and unit costs for the United Kingdom, we document a range of stylised facts about firms’ expectations and their determinants. There is wide dispersion of expectations across firms. Firms' expectations are influenced by both firm-specific factors and macroeconomic factors. We find a significant connection between past expected price and wage increases and their out-turns. Firms’ expectations are, however, clearly not rational.