Inertia Risk: Improving Economic Models of Catastrophes*
提出“惯性风险”概念，描述物理变量与灾害率之间的延迟，改进标准灾难模型，发现最优政策显著不同，灾害概率可在0到1之间变化，并产生路径依赖，以气候变化模型为例说明政策含义。
Abstract We model endogenous catastrophic risk in a new way. We call it “inertia risk”, which accounts for delays between physical variables and the hazard rate – a characteristic often observed in reality. The added realism significantly affects optimal policies relative to the standard model of catastrophic risk. The probability of a catastrophe occurring at some point in time can span the entire interval [0,1], and is not 0 or 1 as is typical in standard models. Inertia risk can also generate path dependences. We illustrate the implications for policy in a simple model of climate change.