新闻驱动的通胀预期与信息刚性

News-driven inflation expectations and information rigidities

Journal of Monetary Economics · 2020
被引 121 · 同刊同年前 9%
人大 AABS 4

中文导读

利用新闻语料和机器学习,发现媒体报道的主题能预测通胀和通胀预期,并解释家庭信息刚性的时变特征,为理解媒体在预期形成中的作用提供新证据。

Abstract

Using a large news corpus and machine learning algorithms we investigate the role played by the media in the expectations formation process of households, and conclude that the news topics media report on are good predictors of both inflation and inflation expectations. In turn, in a noisy information model, augmented with a simple media channel, we document that the time series features of relevant topics help explain time-varying information rigidity among households. As such, we provide a novel estimate of state-dependent information rigidities and present new evidence highlighting the role of the media in understanding inflation expectations and information rigidities.

新闻驱动通胀预期信息刚性机器学习媒体作用