Initial coin offerings (ICOs): market cycles and relationship with bitcoin and ether
用向量自回归模型分析2017-2018年ICO市场周期，发现ICO量受加密货币回报冲击正向影响，但波动率影响不显著，对投资者和发币企业有参考价值。
Abstract We apply a vector autoregression (VAR) model to investigate the market cycles of Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) as well as their relationships with bitcoin and ether. Our sample covers 104 weekly observations between January 2017 and December 2018. Our results show that ICO market cycles exist and that shocks to the growth rates of ICO volumes are persistent. In addition, shocks in cryptocurrency returns have a substantial and positive effect on ICO volumes. In contrast, the volatility of cryptocurrency returns does not significantly affect ICO volumes. Our results are robust to using (i) the number of successfully completed ICO campaigns instead of ICO volumes and (ii) ICO data from a different data source. Our study has implications for financial practice, in particular for cryptocurrency investors and entrepreneurial firms conducting ICOs.