Recessions and Potential Output: Disentangling Measurement Errors, Supply Shocks, and Hysteresis Effects*
利用OECD数据，研究发现衰退后潜在产出估计的下调是大幅且持久的，主要由供给冲击驱动，而需求冲击影响不显著，且部分下调源于衰退前的测量误差。
Abstract This paper investigates expert revisions of potential output (PO) estimates following recessions. Using data from the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD), we show that downward revisions are substantial, permanent, and mostly driven by supply shocks. In contrast, PO estimates do not significantly react to demand shocks. Revisions are also partly caused by mismeasurement of PO before recessions. In particular, we show that the length of the preceding boom and pre‐recession values of the current account balance and credit volumes are correlated with post‐recession PO revisions. Our results call for improved methods for estimating PO and provide evidence against the existence of substantial hysteresis following demand shocks.