Do 40-Year-Old Facts Still Matter? Long-Run Effects of Federal Oversight under the Voting Rights Act
研究了2013年最高法院废除《投票权法案》部分条款后，利用双重差分法分析1975年修订案中联邦监督的长期影响，发现监督使选民投票率提高4-8个百分点，但导致民主党支持率下降，原因是种族保守白人的政治反弹。
In 2013, the Supreme Court struck down parts of the Voting Rights Act that mandated federal oversight of election laws in discriminatory jurisdictions, prompting a spate of controversial new voting rules. Utilizing difference-in-differences to examine the act’s 1975 revision, I provide the first estimates of the effects of “preclearance” oversight. I find that preclearance increased long-run voter turnout by 4–8 percentage points, due to lasting gains in minority participation. Surprisingly, Democratic support dropped sharply in areas subject to oversight. Using historical survey and newspaper data, I provide evidence that this was the result of political backlash among racially conservative whites.