Contractionary Devaluation Risk: Evidence from the Free Silver Movement, 1878–1900
利用美国1878–1900年间白银铸币政策新闻作为汇率预期的外生冲击，发现贬值风险显著影响利率和工业产出，对债券投资者和宏观经济学家有参考价值。
I identify significant effects of devaluation risk on interest rates and output using US silver coinage policy news between 1878 and 1900 as clean shocks to exchange rate expectations. The Free Silver movement heightened fears the United States would abandon the gold standard and depreciate the dollar. Because Congress, rather than a central bank, set silver coinage policy, silver policy news was likely uncorrelated with economic shocks. Corporate bonds exposed to dollar devaluation returned an additional 1 percent relative to safer bonds when silver risk decreased. Additionally, increased silver coinage risk is associated with an economically significant fall in industrial production.