A Dynamic Model of Vaccine Compliance: How Fake News Undermined the Danish HPV Vaccine Program
构建了一个动态模型，分析假新闻和媒体报道如何影响疫苗依从性，并以丹麦HPV疫苗为例，发现争议性电视纪录片播出后疫苗依从性急剧下降，媒体覆盖显著预测接种率。
Increased vaccine hesitancy presents challenges to public health and undermines efforts to eradicate diseases such as measles, rubella, and polio. The decline is partly attributed to misconceptions that are shared on social media, such as the debunked association between vaccines and autism. Perhaps, more damaging to vaccine uptake are cases where trusted mainstream media run stories that exaggerate the risks associated with vaccines. It is important to understand the underlying causes of vaccine refusal, because these may be prevented, or countered, in a timely manner by educational campaigns. In this article, we develop a dynamic model of vaccine compliance that can help pinpoint events that disrupted vaccine compliance. We apply the framework to Danish HPV vaccine data, which experienced a sharp decline in compliance following the broadcast of a controversial TV documentary, and we show that media coverage significantly predicts vaccine uptake.