Best subset binary prediction
研究了通过最大化Manski最大得分目标函数并约束选择变量数量来进行二元结果预测的最佳子集选择方法,给出了精确或近似解的混合整数优化形式,并推导了非渐近风险界,适用于高维协变量场景。
We consider a variable selection problem for the prediction of binary outcomes. We study the best subset selection procedure by which the covariates are chosen by maximizing Manski (1975, 1985)'s maximum score objective function subject to a constraint on the maximal number of selected variables. We show that this procedure can be equivalently reformulated as solving a mixed integer optimization problem, which enables computation of the exact or an approximate solution with a definite approximation error bound. In terms of theoretical results, we obtain non-asymptotic upper and lower risk bounds when the dimension of potential covariates is possibly much larger than the sample size. Our upper and lower risk bounds are minimax rate-optimal when the maximal number of selected variables is fixed and does not increase with the sample size. We illustrate usefulness of the best subset binary prediction approach via Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical application of the work-trip transportation mode choice.