Credit Cycles, Expectations, and Corporate Investment
系统检验明斯基假说，即经济波动源于非理性预期波动。通过构建企业预测误差的非理性预期指数，发现该指数可预测信贷周期，进而驱动企业债务发行和投资周期，且预期更乐观的企业波动更明显。
Abstract We provide a systematic empirical assessment of the Minsky hypothesis that business fluctuations stem from irrational swings in expectations. Using predictable firm-level forecast errors, we build an aggregate index of irrational expectations and use it to provide three sets of results. First, we show that our index predicts aggregate credit cycles. Next, we show that these predictable credit cycles drive cycles in firm-level debt issuance and investment and similar cycles between financially constrained and unconstrained firms, as Minsky predicts. Finally, we show more pronounced cycles in firm-level financing and investment for firms with ex ante more optimistic expectations.