The Currency Composition of Sovereign Debt
通过一个政府缺乏承诺的模型,研究新兴经济体主权债务的货币构成,发现政府倾向于借外币债以避免本币贬值带来的通胀成本,但牺牲了本币债务的对冲功能。
We study the currency composition of sovereign debt in emerging economies through the lens of a model in which the government lacks commitment regarding debt and monetary policy. High levels of debt in local currency give rise to incentives to dilute debt repayment through currency depreciation. Governments tilt the currency composition of debt toward foreign currency to avoid inflationary costs and real exchange rate distortions, at the expense of forgoing the hedging properties of local currency debt. Our quantitative model is used to shed light on the recent dynamics of the currency composition of debt and on its cyclical behavior.