Rules versus Discretion: Inference Gleaned from Greenbook Forecasts and FOMC Decisions
研究了1987至2013年间美联储如何根据绿皮书预测设定联邦基金利率目标，发现偏离规则的自由裁量行为往往预示经济周期转折点，且转折点附近委员会对预测信息的反应减弱。
Abstract From 1987 through 2013, the Federal Open Market Committee appears to have set its federal funds rate target with reference to Greenbook forecasts of the output gap and inflation and, at times, also to have made further adjustments to the funds rate as those forecasts were revised. If viewed in the context of the Taylor (1993) Rule, discretionary departures from the settings prescribed by Greenbook forecasts consistently presage business cycle turning points. Similarly, estimates from an interest rate rule with time‐varying parameters imply that, around such turning points, the FOMC responds less vigorously to information contained in Greenbook forecasts about the changing state of the economy. These results suggest possible gains from closer adherence to a rule with constant parameters.