A Bridge from Monty Hall to the Hot Hand: The Principle of Restricted Choice
揭示了蒙提霍尔问题与热手选择偏差之间的内在联系，通过桥牌中的受限选择原则解释这种关联，并指出研究者可能因忽视类似信息而导致实验设计和数据分析中的偏差。
We show how classic conditional probability puzzles, such as the Monty Hall problem, are intimately related to the recently discovered hot hand selection bias. We explain the connection by way of the principle of restricted choice, an intuitive inferential rule from the card game bridge, which we show is naturally quantified as the updating factor in the odds form of Bayes’s rule. We illustrate how, just as the experimental subject fails to use available information to update correctly when choosing a door in the Monty Hall problem, researchers may neglect analogous information when designing experiments, analyzing data, and interpreting results.