Data-Driven Appointment-Scheduling Under Uncertainty: The Case of an Infusion Unit in a Cancer Center
针对医疗服务中预约系统计划与实际脱节的问题，提出基于无限服务台队列的数据驱动方法，在癌症中心输液单元实现15%-40%的成本降低。
Service systems are often stochastic and preplanned by appointments, yet implementations of their appointment systems are prevalently deterministic. At the planning stage of healthcare services, for example, customer punctuality and service durations are often assumed equal their means—and this gap, between planned and reality, motivated our research. Specifically, we consider appointment scheduling and sequencing under a time-varying number of servers, in a data-rich environment where service durations and punctuality are uncertain. Our data-driven approach, based on infinite-server queues, yields tractable and scalable solutions that accommodate hundreds of jobs and servers. We successfully test our approach against near-optimal algorithms (which exist for merely single-servers). This entails the development of a data-driven robust optimization approach with novel uncertainty sets. To test for practical performance, we leverage a unique data set from a cancer center that combines real-time locations, electronic health records, and appointments log. Focusing on one of the center’s infusion units (roughly 90 daily appointments, 25+ infusion chairs), we reduce cost (waiting plus overtime) on the order of 15%–40% consistently, under a wide range of experimental setups. This paper was accepted by Assaf Zeevi, stochastic models and simulation.