Sentiment and Speculation in a Market with Heterogeneous Beliefs
构建了一个风险厌恶投资者异质信念模型，发现事后正确的投资者（无论靠运气还是判断）会致富，导致情绪随好消息看涨、坏消息看跌；情绪放大极端结果对定价的影响，对左右偏态资产有不对称效应，而温和投资者会逆势交易以对抗极端者造成的过度波动。
We present a model featuring risk-averse investors with heterogeneous beliefs. Individuals who are correct in hindsight—whether through luck or judgment—get rich, so sentiment is bullish following good news and bearish following bad news. Sentiment makes extreme outcomes far more important for pricing and has asymmetric effects on left- and right-skewed assets. Investors take speculative positions that can conflict with their fundamental views. Moderate investors are contrarian: they trade against excess volatility created by extremists. All investors view speculation as socially costly; but they also think it is in their self-interest, and the market can collapse entirely if speculation is banned.