Borrowing for Growth: Big Pushes and Debt Sustainability in Low-Income Countries
构建了一个基于动态宏观经济模型的债务可持续性分析框架，评估低收入国家混合使用优惠与非优惠贷款进行大规模投资项目的风险与回报，发现成败取决于债务合同细节、增长动态和财政调整速度。
Abstract The paper evaluates big push borrowing-and-investment programs in a new model-based framework of debt sustainability that is explicitly designed for policy analysis. The new framework is grounded in a fully-articulated, dynamic macroeconomic model. It allows for financing schemes that mix concessional, external commercial, and domestic debt, while taking into account the impact of public investment on growth and constraints on the speed and magnitude of fiscal adjustment. Supplementing concessional loans with nonconcessional borrowing in world capital markets is generally a high-risk, high-return strategy. It may greatly enhance the prospects for debt sustainability or lead to spectacular failure; much depends on the fine details governing debt contracts, the dynamics of growth, and the speed of fiscal adjustment.