The effect of oil supply shocks on US economic activity: What have we learned?
研究了不同识别假设和模型设定如何导致石油供给冲击对油价和GDP影响估计的巨大差异，发现若基于微观估计的供给弹性范围，油价响应差异会缩小。
Summary Estimated responses of real oil prices and US gross domestic product (GDP) to oil supply disruptions vary widely. We show that most variation is attributable to differences in identification assumptions and in the model specification. Models that allow for a large short‐run price elasticity of oil supply imply a larger response of oil prices and a larger, longer lived contraction in US real GDP. We find that, if we condition on a range of supply elasticity values supported by microeconomic estimates, the differences in the oil price responses diminishes. We also examine the role of lag length, of using pre‐1973 data, alternative measures of real economic activity and using the median response function instead of the modal structural model.