Screening and Selection: The Case of Mammograms
研究了在建议40岁开始乳腺癌筛查的背景下，人们选择接受筛查的行为模式，发现遵从建议者患癌风险反而低于更早筛查或不筛查者，且这种选择偏差对政策效果影响显著。
We analyze selection into screening in the context of recommendations that breast cancer screening start at age 40. Combining medical claims with a clinical oncology model, we document that compliers with the recommendation are less likely to have cancer than younger women who select into screening or women who never screen. We show this selection is quantitatively important: shifting the recommendation from age 40 to 45 results in three times as many deaths if compliers were randomly selected than under the estimated patterns of selection. The results highlight the importance of considering characteristics of compliers when making and designing recommendations.