收入不平等决定因素的稳健性分析:基于模型平均方法的证据

OUP accepted manuscript

Oxford Review of Economic Policy · 2019
被引 37
人大 A-ABS 2

中文导读

使用加权平均最小二乘法(WALS)处理模型不确定性,识别出收入不平等的稳健决定因素,发现发展水平、人口结构、失业、全球化、金融自由化和技术进步是关键驱动因素,且贸易与金融全球化对不平等的影响方向相反。

Abstract

While economic theory suggests a wide range of potential determinants of income inequality, there is little consensus regarding the most relevant ones. Such a lack of consensus reflects, to an important extent, the impact of model uncertainty. Using model-averaging techniques—specifically WALS (weighted-average least squares)—to get at a robust set of determinants, our results underscore the multiplicity of factors behind rising national-level inequalities. In the cross-section, the level of development and demographics, as well as unemployment and globalization, seem to be key drivers. Trade and financial globalization have asymmetric effects, with trade integration associated with lower inequality, and financial globalization with higher inequality. Financial deregulation and technological change seem to be important drivers of inequality, particularly in advanced economies.

收入不平等模型不确定性WALS方法全球化金融自由化