Demographic Transition and Fertility Rebound in Economic Development*
研究用世代交叠模型解释生育率在工业化初期下降、后期反弹的N型曲线，揭示家庭在人力资本投资与子女数量间的权衡如何驱动人口转变。
Abstract Recent evidence on the “fertility rebound” offers credence to the idea that, from the onset of early industrialization to the present day, the dynamics of fertility can be represented by an N‐shaped curve. An overlapping generations model with parental investment in human capital can account for these observed movements in fertility rates during the different stages of demographic change. A demographic transition with declining fertility emerges at the intermediate stage, when parents engage on a child quantity–quality trade‐off. At later stages, however, the process of economic growth generates sufficient resources so that households can rear more children while still providing the desirable amount of education investment per child.