Heterogeneity, Inattention, and Bayesian Updates
构建了一个预期更新理论，利用专业预测者调查数据解释准确性和分歧的动态变化，发现异质性先验和注意力不足足以在正常时期产生持续的分歧，但在危机时期则不然。
We formulate a theory of expectations updating that fits the dynamics of accuracy and disagreement in a new survey of professional forecasters. We document new stylized facts, including the puzzling persistence of disagreement as uncertainty resolves. Our theory explains these facts by allowing for different channels of heterogeneity. Agents produce an initial forecast based on heterogeneous priors and are heterogeneously “inattentive.” Updaters use Bayes’ rule and interpret public information using possibly heterogeneous models. Structural estimation of our theory supports the conclusion that in normal times heterogeneous priors and inattention are enough to generate persistent disagreement, but not during the crisis.