Financial Development, Default Rates and Credit Spreads
研究发现金融发展（即借贷固定成本的外生下降）能解释美国企业违约率从1950-1984年平均0.32%升至1985年后1.65%的现象，同时信用利差仅上升6个基点，因为违约率上升与预期回收率提高相互抵消。
Abstract US corporate default rates increased dramatically from an annual average of 0.32% between 1950 and 1984 up to 1.65% since 1985. Meanwhile, credit spreads rose by just 6 basis points. We argue that financial development—intended as an exogenous reduction in the fixed cost of borrowing—accounts for this evidence. In a heterogeneous firm model financial development boosts both default rates and firms’ expected recovery rates. These two effects offset each other, muting the change in the credit spreads. The model explains 63% of the rise in default rates and predicts a 6 basis point drop in the credit spreads.