Revisiting the Hypothesis of High Discounts and High Unemployment
用劳动市场搜索模型分析贴现率冲击对失业的影响，发现贴现率上升会同时降低就业流入率和流出率，这与美国商业周期中两者负相关的实际表现不符。
Abstract We revisit the hypothesis that cyclical fluctuations in unemployment are caused by shocks to the discount rate. We use a simple but rich search-theoretic model of the labour market in which the UE, EU and EE rates are all endogenous. Analytically, we show that an increase in the discount rate lowers the UE rate and, under some natural conditions, it lowers the EU rate. Quantitatively, we show that an increase in the discount rate from 4% to 10% generates a 3.5% decline in the UE rate and a 6% decline in the EU rate. These findings are at odds with the actual behaviour of the US labour market over the business cycle, which features a negative comovement between the UE and EU rates.