Are Policymakers Ambiguity Averse?*
研究巴黎气候大会上的政策制定者对模糊概率的态度，发现他们普遍厌恶模糊，且这种偏好源于内在倾向而非非理性，同时国家背景和量化能力影响复合风险态度但不影响模糊态度。
Abstract We investigate the ambiguity preferences of a unique sample of real-life policymakers at the Paris UN climate conference (COP21). We find that policymakers are generally ambiguity averse. Using a simple design, we are moreover able to show that these preferences are not necessarily due to an irrational behavior, but rather to intrinsic preferences over unknown probabilities. Exploring the heterogeneity within our sample, we also show that the country of origin and the degree of quantitative sophistication affect policymakers’ attitudes towards compound risk, but not towards ambiguity. Robustness results are obtained in a lab experiment with a sample of university students.