Estimating the Impact of Welfare Programs on Agricultural Output: Evidence from India
利用印度各州农村福利支出的新数据，通过构建外生冲击序列，估计政府转移支付对当地农业产出的乘数效应，发现转移支付显著影响地方经济活动。
Rural welfare programs are implemented for a variety of reasons. However, of key importance is to understand how government spending under such programs affects local agricultural output which is a key measure of economic activity in developing economies. This article estimates the local multiplicative effects of transfer spending by the government using a novel data‐set of state‐level expenditure under rural welfare programs in India. Using government records as narrative evidence, I use the motivation to implement new programs at the national level to construct changes in transfer spending that are largely exogenous to fluctuations in agricultural output at the state level. I estimate local multipliers using this “narrative shock series” and find government transfers to be quite consequential for local economic activity.