The Persistence of Harvest Shocks in Medieval England
研究发现中世纪英格兰收成冲击具有持续性，一次歉收会使后续歉收概率增加20-30%，并探讨了种子供应等机制，对研究历史经济波动和农业风险有参考价值。
I present evidence that shocks to the Medieval English harvest persisted. Hypothesized mechanisms include varying supplies of seed corn and other complementary harvest inputs. Peasants are modeled as trading off current consumption against grain stores and sow rates so that subsistence-level shocks may persist. For my sample I find that a failed harvest increased the probability of subsequent harvest failure by 20–30 percent. Grain yields are analyzed as a strongly balanced panel by year, manor, and crop. While I reject the hypothesis that harvests were self-contained annual events, I caution against linking harvest persistence directly to runs in grain prices.