The economic effects of trade policy uncertainty
研究贸易政策不确定性意外变化对美国经济的影响，通过报纸报道、企业财报和关税税率构建三种不确定性指标，发现其上升会抑制企业投资，并用两国一般均衡模型解释这一现象。
This paper studies the effects of unexpected changes in trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on the U.S. economy. Three measures of TPU are constructed using newspaper coverage, firms’ earnings calls, and tariff rates. Firm-level and aggregate macroeconomic data reveal that increases in TPU reduce business investment. The empirical results are interpreted through the lens of a two-country general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities and firms’ export participation decisions. News and increased uncertainty about higher future tariffs reduce investment and activity.