Nonparametric Inference on State Dependence in Unemployment
提出非参数动态潜在结果模型，用线性规划构建识别集，估计失业状态依赖至少解释高中男性失业四个月持续性的30-40%。
This paper is about measuring state dependence in dynamic discrete outcomes. I develop a nonparametric dynamic potential outcomes (DPO) model and propose an array of parameters and identifying assumptions that can be considered in this model. I show how to construct sharp identified sets under combinations of identifying assumptions by using a flexible linear programming procedure. I apply the analysis to study state dependence in unemployment for working age high school educated men using an extract from the 2008 Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). Using only nonparametric assumptions, I estimate that state dependence accounts for at least 30–40% of the four‐month persistence in unemployment among high school educated men.