DOES THE BETTER-THAN-AVERAGE EFFECT SHOW THAT PEOPLE ARE OVERCONFIDENT?: TWO EXPERIMENTS
通过两个基于贝叶斯模型的实验，检验人们是否过度自信，发现即使在理性假设下，过度自信现象仍然存在，为过度自信理论提供了新证据。
We conduct two experimental tests of the claim that people are overconfident, using new tests of overplacement that are based on a formal Bayesian model. Our two experiments, on easy quizzes, find that people overplace themselves. More precisely, we find apparently overconfident data that cannot be accounted for by a rational population of expected utility maximizers who care only about money. The finding represents new evidence of overconfidence that is robust to the Bayesian critique offered by Benoît and Dubra (Jean-Pierre Benoît and Juan Dubra (2011). “Apparent Overconfidence.” Econometrica, 79, 1591–1625). We discuss possible limitations of our results.