Networks and migrants’ intended destination
利用盖洛普在147国的调查数据，发现移民在目的国的熟人分布与实际移民存量高度吻合，且双边移民意向与实际流动显著相关。通过条件Logit模型估计，证实有朋友在某个国家会显著增加该目的地的吸引力。
Social networks are known to influence migration decisions, but connections between individuals can hardly be observed. We rely on individual-level surveys conducted by Gallup in 147 countries that provide information on migration intentions and on the existence of distance-one connections for all respondents in each of the potential countries of intended destination. The origin-specific distribution of distance-one connections from Gallup closely mirrors the actual distribution of migrant stocks across countries, and bilateral migration intentions appear to be significantly correlated with actual flows. This unique data source allows estimating origin-specific conditional logit models that shed light on the value of having a friend in a given country on the attractiveness of that destination. The validity of the distributional assumptions that underpin the estimation is tested, and concerns about the threats to identification posed by unobservables are substantially mitigated.