Failures in Contingent Reasoning: The Role of Uncertainty
实验发现，不确定性是导致个体在条件推理中难以实现收益最大化的关键因素，解释了条件推理困难的大部分原因。
We propose a new channel to account for the difficulties of individuals with contingent reasoning: the presence of uncertainty. When moving from an environment with one state of known value to one with multiple possible values, two changes occur. First, the number of values to consider increases. Second, the value of the state is uncertain. We show in an experiment that this lack of certainty, or the loss of the Power of Certainty, impedes payoff maximization and that it accounts for a substantial portion of the difficulties with contingent reasoning.