Binary Conditional Forecasts
将条件预测方法扩展到二元变量，利用Qual-VAR模型对潜在变量进行条件预测，进而生成二元变量的概率预测，并应用于实时预测美国经济衰退及分析货币和石油冲击的影响。
While conditional forecasting has become prevalent both in the academic literature and in practice (e.g., bank stress testing, scenario forecasting), its applications typically focus on continuous variables. In this article, we merge elements from the literature on the construction and implementation of conditional forecasts with the literature on forecasting binary variables. We use the Qual-VAR, whose joint VAR-probit structure allows us to form conditional forecasts of the latent variable which can then be used to form probabilistic forecasts of the binary variable. We apply the model to forecasting recessions in real-time and investigate the role of monetary and oil shocks on the likelihood of two U.S. recessions.