Venting Out: Exports during a Domestic Slump
利用2002-2013年西班牙制造业企业数据,研究发现国内需求下降越多的企业出口增长越大,说明出口市场能缓冲国内需求冲击,且这种企业层面的反应解释了2009-2013年西班牙商品出口激增的一半。
We study the relationship between domestic-demand shocks and exports using data for Spanish manufacturing firms in 2002–2013. Exploiting plausibly exogenous geographical variation caused by the Great Recession, we find that firms whose domestic sales declined by more experienced a larger increase in export flows, controlling for firms’ supply determinants. This result illustrates the capacity of export markets to counteract the negative impact of local demand shocks. By structurally estimating a heterogeneous-firm model of exporting with nonconstant marginal costs of production, we conclude that these firm-level responses accounted for half of the spectacular increase in Spanish goods exports over the period 2009–2013.