Beyond Random Assignment: Credible Inference and Extrapolation in Dynamic Economies
研究了动态经济中线性利润和线性二次库存成本下冲击响应与理论因果效应（比较静态）的分析关系，发现永久性盈利冲击的响应可能符号错误或过度/不足，并推导了盈利冲击响应等于因果效应的充分条件（鞅盈利性）。
ABSTRACT We derive analytical relationships between shock responses and theory‐implied causal effects (comparative statics) in dynamic settings with linear profits and linear‐quadratic stock accumulation costs. For permanent profitability shocks, responses can have incorrect signs, undershoot, or overshoot depending on the size and sign of realized changes. For profitability shocks that are i.i.d., uniformly distributed, binary, or unanticipated and temporary, there is attenuation bias, which exceeds 50% under plausible parameterizations. We derive a novel sufficient condition for profitability shock responses to equal causal effects: martingale profitability. We establish a battery of sufficient conditions for correct sign estimation, including stochastic monotonicity. Simple extrapolation/error correction formulas are presented.