What happens during flight to safety: Evidence from public and private real estate markets
研究了公开和私人房地产投资在避险事件期间及之后的表现,发现公开房地产证券能提供部分对冲,但多次避险事件预示经济增长放缓,导致长期投资表现变弱,且现金流下降风险增加。
Abstract Little is known about the performance of public and private real estate investments during and after flight to safety (FTS). We document that public real estate securities offer a partial hedge during FTS events. In addition, periods with multiple FTS events forecast slower economic growth, resulting in weaker long‐run investment performance of real estate assets. Following FTS, the probability of a drop in real estate cash flows increases by up to 20%, with quarterly cash flow growth rates declining by as much as 27%. Private market real estate price appreciation over the four quarters following FTS is nearly wiped out.