Narrow Incumbent Victories and Post-Election Conflict: Evidence from the Philippines
利用2007年菲律宾市长选举数据，研究发现现任者险胜后选举后暴力事件显著增加，且险胜与选举操纵有关，而非政策或过往表现。
Abstract Post-election violence is a common form of conflict, but its underlying mechanisms are not well understood. Using data from the 2007 Philippine mayoral elections, this paper provides evidence that post-election violence is particularly intense after narrow victories by incumbents. Using a density test, the study shows that incumbents were substantially more likely to win narrow victories than their challengers, a pattern consistent with electoral manipulation. There is no evidence that the increase in post-election violence is related to the incumbents’ political platform or their performance in past elections. These results provide support for the notion that post-election violence is triggered by election fraud or by the failure of democratic ways of removing unpopular incumbents from office.