The Lazarus drug: the impact of antiretroviral therapy on economic growth
利用2001年抗逆转录病毒药物价格大幅下降带来的治疗覆盖率快速扩张,研究发现该疗法改善了人口健康,并推动了人均GDP增长,效果持续约四年,可解释撒哈拉以南非洲约三分之一的经济增长奇迹。
Does better population health lead to growth in per capita income? Theory is ambiguous and empirical evidence is very limited. In 2001, a steep fall in antiretroviral (ARV) drug prices triggered rapid and massive expansion of ARV therapy coverage in lower-income countries. Exploiting the sharp resultant changes in population health, I show that ARV therapy coverage expansion led to growth in GDP per capita. The positive effects on growth most likely persist for around four years. ARV therapy coverage expansion could explain around a third of the sub-Saharan African “growth miracle”.